Dubious Logic

Safety Plays

Safety plays are more often talked about – or written about – than actually seen at the table. Perhaps most often heard ruefully; when someone makes a trick fewer than the room, they claim they were "playing it for safety".

In fact at matchpointed pairs, where you can get an equally poor score for failing to take an overtrick or suffering an extra undertrick, the whole safety analysis is complicated. Maybe that is an attraction of the format; better not to worry and play your contracts and suit combinations in a straightforward manner, hoping for a pleasant lie and as many tricks as possible.

At match play you must consider the safety of your contract, even with plays that forfeit a trick so often that the overtrick IMPs lost over time exceed the game swings gained. The psychological impact of a big adverse result is so strong, you should pay the safety dues.

Thus prepared, how do you approach this vulnerable four hearts from the West seat on the lead of the knave of spades? Does it matter if it is for IMPs or matchpoints?

Your contract is excellent and you should clearly draw trumps immediately. So you play a heart to the queen…

That is undoubtedly best if you needed four heart tricks – in five hearts for example. Playing towards either honour is 'lucky' if the singleton ace is played in front of you, 'unlucky' if it captures your honour. Playing towards the queen captures four tricks when South has all the trumps because you can finesse for the knave and nine.

But… When North has all the trumps your tricks shrink to just two. Playing to the king gives up on four tricks when either defender has all the trumps but never takes fewer than three.

Strangely the expectation for leading towards either honour is the same. The cases where an opponent holds singleton ace cancel out, low to the king gains a trick when North has four trumps (three against two) but low to the queen makes an extra trick when South has four trumps (four against three). So if you were playing pairs you could toss a coin. What about match play?

Well crossing to East entails some jeopardy. For example, seeking to make against North's four trumps, it would be embarrassing still to go down he held ♠J109xx ♥AJ92 ♦Jxxx ♣---.

So here, when your contract is in danger to a 4-0 trump break, you are just a tiny bit better to adopt a third course – play the heart king from hand at trick two. This invests a trick some of the time, when either defender has singleton ace, but never loses three tricks and avoids playing a club (you can ruff a spade if necessary).

At the table in a match, both declarers led low to the queen and both had to go down one when North had four trumps. Another flat board…

Published Saturday 30.Jan.2010