Dubious Logic

Suffolk v Hertfordshire

Suffolk entertained Hertfordshire in the Eastern Counties League last weekend and was too generous a host. The 'A', 'B', and 'C' teams all suffered defeats, respectively 3-17, 4-16 and 2-18 in victory points.

Looking over the match results I cannot recall when there were so many large swings. ECL matches are scored by summing four results and converting to IMPs and large swings are clearly possible. Nevertheless this often has the effect of removing volatility but Sunday saw frequent board-results of 14 IMPs or more. The swingiest deal did have voids and long suits but this one was a close second with not even a singleton:

	♠ AJ10		♠ Q75
	♥ QJ10		♥ AK8
	♦ A9752		♦ K4
	♣ K9		♣ A10653

Slam is no great bargain on these cards but it is easy to see that both players might have given an up-tick to their valuations: they had good controls, some useful intermediates and each had a five card suit. However, on a passive heart lead, declarer (invariably west) was faced with only eight tricks. Even with the necessary optimism of the spade king onside, bringing the trick total to ten, one of the five card suits had to produce two more – so how do you play?

It is natural and correct to attack clubs, the stronger suit where you hold both ten and nine. There's no way to combine chances in both suits as the likelihood of getting a fast trick and switching is small. To make your nine of clubs work you should lead towards the king-nine and attempt a finesse. This will bring in four tricks not only when the suit is 3-3 but also when south holds honour-low or queen-knave-low-low.

Of course, it would be very unfortunate to bid the slam without the nine of clubs but that only offsets the disappointment of so much duplication in the majors. Three Suffolk partnerships duly recorded +1440 and useful swings to the county, well done to Julian Lang and David Morran, Graham Beeton and Sue Flin, Neil Bresler and David Cooper.

Suffolk v Hertfordshire
'A' Team lost 3-17 VPs (-49 IMPs)
P. Gemmell / P. Sutcliffe
J. Gobert / M. Sherer
A. Green / D. Valtisiaris
J. Lang / D. Morran

'B' Team lost 4-16 VPs (-41 IMPs)
R. Hanley / J. Orton
N. Bresler / D. Cooper
B. Davies / D. Gudka
G. Beeton / S. Flin

'C' Team lost 2-18 VPs (-62 IMPs)
N. Less / H. Mason
R. Parish / P. Whetton
C. Bamberger / R. Green
J. Heath / M. Heath

Published Saturday 24.Oct.2009