Dubious Logic

For Squeeze Fans

The last article mentioned that declarer could have executed a squeeze but didn't discuss it so this week, here is something for fans of the play.

Squeezes are genuinely difficult, not because the mechanism is always complicated (leave yourself one trick short then cash your winners) but because it's often hard to assess how good your chances are and even if your play has actually succeeded. By comparison, 'seeing' a finesse is easy and its success or otherwise, apparent. Two examples from a recent match:

Without giving much away you reach three no-trumps from the west cards. The heart ten is led and the defence take four tricks, leader having started with king-ten-nine-low; he exits with a club, how do you play?

You could take the diamond finesse, a 50-50 shot. You could cash spades and clubs then, reduced to two cards in each hand – diamond ace-queen opposite a diamond and the club four – lead a diamond unless the club was a winner. You could then guess to play the ace dropping the now singleton king if north held the master club. But it would still be a guess and you'd be no better off (but slower) than finessing.

Or you could play the diamond knave early, if it isn't covered, rise ace and run your spades. You've burnt your boats this time and now need the diamond king in the same hand as the fourth club. That's against the odds – the holder of four clubs has only five places for the diamond king (the thirteen they started with, less four hearts, less the clubs) compared to six for the hand with shorter clubs. But you have the chance of a helpful cover and you might try this if you needed a good result but all in all, the finesse is best.

In this 3NT, again you have eight tricks but only two choices:

Hearing his partner overcall the suit, north obediently leads a heart; south wins the king and returns a low one, north showing three. Naturally you can try for diamonds and spades to be 3-3 but the principal decision is to take a club finesse or return a heart and hope the run of south's winners embarrasses the defenders.

The finesse is about 50-50; south might need the card for his overcall but against that, with the heart length, he has fewer spaces for it. Say you play back a heart and south takes his winners and tempts you with a club; keeping to your plan you play the ace and cash your spades, arriving at:

If the spade eight (or the club queen) is good you're done, likewise, when you play the diamonds next – at least you don't have to guess anything. You will have succeeded whenever the overcaller (your finesse candidate) had the club king unless they currently hold the spade winner, that is were originally 4=5=2=2. Against all other (reasonable) distributions your refusing the finesse is better; for example, when they hold that hand or 2=5=2=4 without the king.

Could you do this analysis at the table? Perhaps but as hinted at earlier, it might take a little time, even more so when you have to explain to partner why you declined a winning finesse.

Published Saturday 30.May.2009