Dubious Logic

Suffolk Club Teams of Four

When you double a contract, what do you hope for most? That the opponents go down? That seems a reasonable ambition but it may not be enough. If you play matchpointed pairs, where you seek to simply score more than the rest, when your +200 stands out from many +100s you have indeed a fine result. But if opponents should be making a contract anyway, so others with your cards have negative scores, +200 may score exactly the same as +100 – without the risk.

And this is true in teams events too. The overwhelming majority are scored with the IMP scale which flattens large scores. From the recent Suffolk Club Teams of Four, consider this hand as South, opponents vulnerable, do you double?

• K108
• Q4
• J1043
• AK103

West's opening could have been a balanced hand with as few as two clubs but East's spade response showed five and the raise, four. You might have a trump trick, you might have a club trick (two in your dreams), you might have a surprise in diamonds (though you'll have to follow if declarer tries ruffing them, partner can have at most one spade).

The holder of these cards did double and, though the opening club was ruffed, because partner produced the diamond ace, the contract was one light. Phew, +200! But teammates had +650 from an overtrick in game and that converted to +13 IMPs – exactly the same as if you had just scored +100.

How about this situation from the same event?

Do you redouble? The active bidding from vulnerable opponents surely means they have values in hearts and your cards outside will work well (including – fingers crossed – partner's trump honours) but what do you hope to gain? If four spades redoubled goes one down, you lose 4 or 3 IMPs against +50 or +100 (teammates double) from the other room. If you make, then you gain 10 or 7 IMPs when you compare with -420 or -590, again depending on whether teammates pass out or double.

So here, where you expect to be no more than one down and you can handle the opponents bidding on, the odds favour the redouble. As you can see, there is no defence to ten tricks in spades and the defence actually missed their way allowing an overtrick for +1080. In the other room, South kept her opinions about four spades to herself and, not forewarned of the distribution, West mistimed the play to go two light.

Published Saturday 28.Mar.2009