Dubious Logic

The 1NT with a five-card major debate

Following last week's article showcasing the success of opening one no-trump with a five card major, I thought I would look at the subject in a little more depth.

Perhaps a word about the hands we are considering; you have to be in range for one no-trump obviously, but even those keen on five-card major inclusion usually defer to a suit opening when they are at the maximum of their range. True, they might still choose no-trump with five low but then so would most. It is also important to consider what the alternative suit opening shows.

In a five-card major system (where one heart or spade promises at least five) if there is a 5-3 major fit, partner will know about it. In a four-card system, as most British club players employ and most beginners are taught, even holding three cards in opener's suit, responder may not fancy immediate support. They may have no shortage so be concerned about playing with potential 4-3 trumps or they may judge it better to offer another strain. Possibly, responders to a four-card major do a better job of selecting major fits, prepared as they are to play with only seven trumps.

Whatever the system, the attraction is to remove this hand-type from further bidding. To see this, consider as an example one of the hands from last week:

• QJ3
• K8432
• AQ
• 1062

After one no-trump (12-14) your job is done, after one heart what will happen? If the opponents are polite enough to leave you to it, partner will respond – say one spade. You are too weak for a rebid in no-trumps (15-16). With three spades (compare 2=5=3=3) you can consider a raise. Many however, expect four cards for this, but even amongst those who do not, with half your strength concentrated in your doubleton, you do not really have a useful ruffing value. The trouble is exacerbated facing a two-minor response and the corner into which you are painted is to rebid two hearts.

A rebid on as poor a suit as this will inevitably lead to poor contracts; either you will play two hearts with seven (or even six) trumps with no shortage for control, no side suit to establish and no way of drawing the opponents' trumps or you will reach game or slam and discover you have heart losers but many tricks outside.

Consider 1♥ – 1♠; 2♥ and 1♠ – 2♣; 2♠: partner hasn't got a second suit, hasn't got a balanced hand, wouldn't it be good to count on a six-card suit opposite? Or, at the very least, a strong five-carder.

Bridge is tough enough as it is and we like simplicity. For the reasons above, Andrew Robson, leading player and bridge-teacher, has come down firmly on including virtually all balanced five-card majors in one no-trump (as readers of that other daily, The Times, will know).

There have been statistical studies of this. Based on the records of on-line bridge (which being international is dominated by five-card major systems), holding a five card major of QJxxx, Kxxxx or better and 15-16 HCP within a 5-3-3-2 shape, these were the average returns:

The first figure (plus/minus) is the IMP score, the second the percentage at matchpointed pairs. The results came from over 170 thousand deals where the dealer matched the requirements above (out of 52 million considered). To underline the message, if you have a balanced hand with five hearts in range for your (strong) no-trump, opening 1NT will score, on average, 5% or half an IMP better than one heart.

Of course, such analyses and appeals to simplicity do not explain why a no-trump works out better; any number of reasons – one major getting too high, one no-trump silencing the opponents, reaching contracts shut out by a suit opening, only better players currently choosing 1NT, etc. – could be responsible. What is no longer in doubt however, is that the impetus has swung behind five-major inclusion.

Published Saturday 17.Jan.2009