Rubber, teams or pairs?

Last week, after a discussion about duplicate scoring, I left readers pondering a bidding problem. Don't be concerned if you missed that, take a moment or two to decide what you'd do here, your side vulnerable, opponents not:

West
North
East
South
—
—
2 [weak]
3
3
Pass
Pass
3
Pass
??

I mentioned that at rubber bridge you would surely pass. If it turns out you could have made game in spades you would defend your action by saying that,

  1. Game was far from certain and at least you now have 90 below the line.
  2. If trumps break badly, four spades may well attract a double when three spades, even if it fails, would not.

Rubber bridge is much more like duplicate teams than pairs and successful players of both share an optimistic outlook. Curiously, while the vulnerability inhibits the rubber player because of (b), the risks and rewards change for the teams player. Vulnerable at duplicate you stand to gain 10 IMPs (+620 and -170) if game makes but lose only 6 IMPs (-100 and -140) if it fails – and the supposition that you are not doubled and never more than one off of course. If you play the hand sixteen times, you need only succeed on six occasions (6 times plus 10) to break even with the ten that fail (10 times minus 6).

So, vulnerable games that fail more often than they succeed should be bid – by a ratio of three to five. The same arithmetic for non-vulnerable games yields a 50-50 split and you should be more cautious, requiring an even money chance.

On the hand above, we should ask ourselves, can we ever make game? Well, partner surely has no hearts, give him:

And after ruffing the opening lead, he'll unblock the club ace, draw two rounds of trumps and merrily run clubs – you might even make eleven tricks. The same hand without the diamond queen and a heart lead (or 4=0=2=7) would give the same play for game. Four spades seems worth the risk.

At duplicate pairs that gulf between +170 and +620 is just insurance: if the next best score is, say, +110 or +130, then game or partial making four in spades are the same, only if there is, for example, a +300 will it make any difference. Even then, +170 will score about 90% of the matchpoints.

So at pairs you'd reflect that not everyone will be finding West's raise on two cards (or perhaps, East's opening with just five hearts). You were passing three clubs, now it looks that you'll get a better score in spades. You should count your blessings, be a little pessimistic and take your nice plus – even if it's not the very best, it figures to be good enough.

In the round-up of local events last week I should have pointed out that the Suffolk association has a website with details of competitions: http://www.suffolkbridge.co.uk/, now with a new look (and links to these articles too).

Published Saturday 21.Jul.2007