Dubious Logic

Eight ever, nine never...

'Eight ever, nine never' – yes, I know you know the mantra too. Relating to the everyday decision of whether, missing four cards in an important suit, it is right to play for the drop or take a finesse, it is at least accurate. But the saying obscures how close it is. Once you have played off one top honour and lead towards the finesse position, a large number of the initial possibilities have gone and the difference is just 13 to 12 in favour of that initial even break. What that really means is than any clue you can pick up can tip the balance the other way. This hand illustrates that… and more.

E-W Vul.

After his weak two opening North leads the five of diamonds and the knave holds the first trick. The contract depends on bringing in the club suit so how can you maximise your chances? There has been a conspicuous silence in the spade department and the suit figures to be three with North and only six with South. That points to North being short in clubs, but how short? It seems to be a good idea to play off the heart winners but that is likely to be inconclusive; if North follows twice, you will not know if he started with a putative 3=2=6=2 or 3=3=6=1 and be no further forward than '..nine never'.

Of course were North to show out on the second heart you could play him for 3=1=6=3 so there is some point in playing the heart ace, king. But at the table, Suffolk's Ed Colley came up with a play I confess I would never have seen. At trick two he led a heart to the ten. Would North attack spades? No – why should he? Especially if he wins the knave, he is hardly likely to think he has just been put in to cash six tricks. The advantage is enormous as it will enable you to get a lock on the club suit. So it transpired, North won the knave and continued a diamond. The count of hearts and therefore clubs was assured. The full hand revealed the only disappointing note to this story:

Of course, declarer picked up the club suit after his courageous duck in hearts. But, as you can see, the much more routine play of the top hearts would have just done as well. As they say, 'Real pearls…'.

Published Saturday 26.Jul.2003