Early Decisions
Do you fancy your defence or your declarer play? I'll be easy on you, let me give you the single dummy problem.
| ♠ KQ3 | ♠ 4 | |||
| ♥ 94 | ♥ AKQ72 | |||
| ♦ AJ652 | ♦ KQ4 | |||
| ♣ A72 | ♣ QJ65 | |||
| West | North | East | South | ||||
| 1♥ | Pass | ||||||
| 2♦ | Pass | 3♣ | Pass | ||||
| 3NT | Pass | 4♦* | Pass | ||||
| 4NT* | Pass | 6♦ | End | ||||
Curiously it was east's four diamonds that asked for aces and west's four no-trump that showed them (two). Many players use this device when three no-trump is freely removed to four of a bid minor, this bid is ace-asking (usually Roman Keycard) for that suit. North led the knave of spades and south rose with the ace to play a small club, plan the play - do you finesse? If south had played a spade and left you to your own devices, would you play differently?
To answer the first question, taking the club finesse will win about half of the time. You'll still need trumps no worse than 4-1. Now once I may have said you only needed to know three percentages (that of a finesse, 50%, a 3-2 break, 68% and 3-3 split, 36%) but you've come on since then so here are two more. Five cards divide 3-2, 4-1 in the ratio 68, 28. And six cards divide, 3-3, 4-2 according to 36, 48. Repeat those as a mantra. So here the club finesse, though an even money shot, will only get your contract a smidgen less that 50% - half of 68% + 28%, that is 48%. What of the alternative line, that of trying to establish the hearts?
That requires diamonds 3-2 and hearts no worse than 4-2. That will be 68% of 36% added to 48%. That is in itself 57% and you still have the chance that though trumps are 4-1 you can arrange to play hearts. That will only work when hearts are 3-3 and south has four trumps but it's worth something.
What then of the passive spade return? Now you are healthier. You can draw trumps and try the hearts, if they fail, take the club finesse. That amounts to 36% for hearts 3-3 plus half the remaining 64% when they are not but the club finesse works. That's 68% and much better than going after the heart suit.
In a recent Summer League match John Leigh for Ipswich and Kesgrave defended as south as described, switching to a small club from A8765, 10, 1096,K1083. Faced with the immediate decision, declarer rightly took the line to set up hearts and was down, and John had earned Ipswich a swing.
Published Saturday 22.Sep.2001