Dubious Logic

SCBA Squad Evening

A recent initiative for Suffolk County team members– indeed any players wishing to improve – has been a squad evening to discuss hands from the most recent match. At the last, the thorny subject of slam bidding was raised. The trouble with slams is everyone likes to bid them – too much so. And to further reinforce the predilection, everyone flatters themselves that the slams that they bid are better than they actually are.

Bidding is a risky business whether it is game or slam. What you must hope to do is bid in such a way that in the long run you will come out ahead. That means that any small slam must be at worst on a finesse and a grand slam must be better than that (approaching a 60% chance). There are relatively few slams that can be bid without constructing hands and imagining the play. So, rather than bid on general rules, you must switch over to placing cards picturing hands that provide the required number of tricks. One of the guidelines discussed was, 'bid a slam if a perfect minimum would make it a lay-down and it will be no poorer than 50-50'. Evaluate these situations;

How do you rate six spades? Well it looks pretty good. If spades are 3-2 then you are sure to make it..? Pretty much so but don't forget that if you have done a lot of descriptive bidding, then the opponents might lead a heart and be able to score a ruff. In fact on a heart lead the entries become a little tangled and the hand flatters somewhat. Even so, this is still just with the odds and if East can get his shape across, West should believe that he has fitting cards. Bad news though, trumps were four to the king with North and even game in spades failed at some tables. What about this six spades,

First you need trumps to play without loss, which they will about 90% of the time. Then if North leads a heart, you'll have to find him with the king or the diamond king – and make a correct guess. Either way that's 50-50. So you chances are already worse than 50%. But at many tables North overcalled the opening one spade with two diamonds, does that change anything. Yes it does! North is pretty much odds on to hold a key honour and if he makes a passive trump lead you can try him for the club king first, before the risk of the diamond finesse.

What you have to do in all these circumstances is be flexible about how to value your hand, how it fits with your partner and how the play will develop. By stepping through the play during the auction you can count the tricks and watch out for potential problems like blockages.

Anyone interested in the next squad evening, contact the county captain, Mike Sherer (01206 823330) or or me, .

Published Saturday 24.Feb.2001